USDA's World Ag Supply Demand Estimates for April Released

USDA’s World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates report also indicated that total U.S. meat production for 2009 is forecast lower this month as a slight increase in beef output is more than offset by lower pork and poultry production. The beef production forecast is raised from last month due to a combination of heavier expected steer and heifer weights and higher expected cow slaughter.

Broiler production forecasts are lowered as hatchery data point to continued reductions in eggs set and chicks placed. Hatchery supply flocks are below last year, implying little prospect for recovery until later in the year. Turkey production is also forecast lower as there are no indications that flocks will expand before mid-year.

Export forecasts for 2009 for major meats are lowered slightly. Exports of beef and turkey are forecast lower but the pork export forecast is raised. Broiler exports are unchanged. Beef imports are raised but imports for pork are unchanged.

The cattle price forecast is about unchanged from last month. Hog prices are raised as tighter hog supplies are expected. Broiler prices are lowered as demand is expected to remain weak.

Milk production forecasts for 2009 are lowered from last month as cow numbers are down, as producers are expected to liquidate herds in response to poor returns. Milk price estimates for 2009 are raised. Reductions in milk supplies are expected to support product prices. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised and the all milk price is also forecast higher this month at $11.85 to $12.35 per cwt.

This month’s U.S. 2008/09 cotton estimates include marginally lower supplies combined with larger offtake, resulting in a 600-thousand-bale reduction in forecast ending stocks. The production estimate is lowered 206-thousand bales from last month based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report. Domestic mill use is lowered 100-thousand bales to 3.65 million, as mill use reported for February fell sharply. Exports are raised 500-thousand bales Ending stocks are now estimated at 6.7 million bales, or 41.5 percent of total use. The forecast season-average price range of 47 to 51 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.

The world cotton estimates for 2008/09 include lower consumption and higher ending stocks compared with last month. World production is reduced marginally, due mainly to adjustments for the United States and Iran. World consumption is reduced 1.2 percent, due to decreases for China and others.