World Fertilizer Outlook Released

In its Fertilizer Outlook for 2009 through 2013, the International Fertilizer Industry Association suggests that, after the sudden fall in demand during the 2008/2009 fertilizer campaign, a rebound may be expected for the following year. IFA believes the improvement will be realized because of - stable growth trends that have been experienced so far in the agricultural sector. Agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain attractive, thus encouraging farmers to increase crop production.

In its baseline scenario, IFA estimates that the economic crisis can be translated in one to three years of lost growth in fertilizer demand. Nevertheless, a gradual rebound might be felt as early as in the next six months. For the 2009/10 campaign, a growth of 3.6%, representing 165.4 million tons of nutrients, is envisioned. In 2013/14, a growth rate of 2.3% per annum could be anticipated, representing up to 187 Million tons of nutrients by the end of that period.

IFA also forecasts a potential fertilizer supply surplus for the years to come. In the short term, the depressed demand for fertilizer and, in the long run, new projects coming into production in several countries are the main factors supporting the potential surplus argument, in particular in the potash and phosphate sectors. The report doesn’t address pricing.