WASDE Report Released

The monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report has been released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and its’ World Agriculture Outlook Board. The report utilized information from the National Agricultural Statistics Service.


*WHEAT*

The Department raised U.S. wheat supplies for 2009/10 as higher area and yields add 96 million bushels to forecast production. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher with smaller crops in major exporting countries. The ending stocks projection is raised 59 million bushels. The first 2009/10 by-class wheat supply and demand projections indicate larger supplies of hard red spring, white, and durum wheat and lower supplies of hard red winter and soft red winter wheat from year-ago levels. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.80 to $5.80 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected lower this month as a 1.0-million-ton beginning stocks reduction more than offsets a 0.4-million-ton production increase.


*COARSE GRAINS*

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected by USDA to be higher this month. Corn supplies are projected at 14.1 million bushels, up 335 million bushels from 2008/09. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is raised 50 million bushels as increased supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feeding demand. Exports are raised 50 million bushels and ending stocks are projected at 1.6 million bushels. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel, down 55 cents on both ends of the range.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 13.0 million tons higher this month mostly reflecting higher corn beginning stocks and production in the United States. World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected slightly higher for 2009/10.


*RICE*

U.S. total rice supplies for 2009/10 are projected at 253.7 million cwt, down 4 percent from last month. U.S. rice production is projected at 211.0 million cwt, 4 percent below last month, but 4 percent above 2008/09. Long-grain rice production is projected at 151.0 million cwt, about 11 percent below last month; while, combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 60.0 million cwt, nearly 18 percent above last month. Beginning stocks for 2009/10 are lowered nearly 7 percent, while imports are lowered about 5 percent.

The 2009/10 season-average farm price range is raised $2.75 cents per cwt on each end to $13.25 to $14.25 per cwt compared to a revised $16.05 per cwt for 2008/09. The long-grain season-average farm price range for 2009/10 is increased $2.50 per cwt on each end to $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt compared to a revised $14.85 per cwt in 2008/09. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is increased $4.00 per cwt to $19.50 to $20.50 per cwt compared to a revised $21.50 per cwt in 2008/09.

Global 2009/10 rice supply and use are little changed from last month’s projections.



*OILSEEDS*

U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 8 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Higher soybean stocks account for most of the increase. Oilseed production is projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons, with increased

soybean production accounting for most of the change. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/10 is projected at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel, down 70 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $255 to $315 per short ton, down 20 dollars on both ends. Soybean oil prices are projected at 31 to 35 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends of the range.


*SUGAR*

Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is decreased 100,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Beginning stocks are lowered 100,000 tons. imports from Mexico are increased 150,000 tons while imports under the tariff rate quota are decreased 40,000 tons. Sugar use is increased 100,000 tons to reflect the refined portion of the increase in imports from Mexico.


*LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY*

Total U.S. meat production for 2009 is reduced as lower beef output more than offsets higher pork and poultry production. The Cattle report, to be released on July 24, will provide an indication of breeding herd retention and the number of cattle outside feedlots. Meat production for 2010 is raised as higher pork and broiler production outweigh slightly lower beef production.

Turkey export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced largely because of expected lower shipments to Mexico. Export forecasts of other meats are unchanged. Price forecasts for 2009 are lowered for hogs, generally reflecting a higher production forecast. Cattle and broiler forecasts are unchanged. Egg prices in 2009 are forecast lower on softer demand.

For 2010, higher forecast pork production is expected to weigh on supplies and price forecasts are reduced. Prices for cattle and broilers are unchanged. Egg price forecasts are reduced as the current market weakness is expected to carry into 2010.

The milk production forecast is raised fractionally for 2009 as the reduction in cow numbers is slightly slower than expected. Milk production for 2010 is unchanged. Imports for 2009 on a skim-solids basis are forecast lower; the commercial export forecast is unchanged from last month. For 2009 and 2010, Class III prices are reduced as lower cheese price forecasts more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is reduced in line with lower butter and NDM prices in both 2009 and 2010. The all milk price is forecast at $11.85 to $12.15 per cwt for 2009 and $14.85 to $15.85 for 2010.


*COTTON*

The U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for 2009/10 show lower beginning stocks offset by lower exports, leaving ending stocks unchanged from last month at 5.6 million bales. Production is estimated at 13.25 million bales, the same as last month. Domestic mill use also is unchanged, but exports are reduced 600,000 bales to 10.2 million due to lower U.S. supplies and reduced foreign import demand. The forecast range of 48 to 60 cents per pound for the marketing-year average farm price is the same as last month.

A combination of higher beginning stocks and lower consumption are raising this month’s projected world 2009/10 cotton ending stocks by about 2 percent.